Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire

Finally, after a month of relative inaction, Major League Baseball’s offseason is primed to pop off. Over the next few weeks, executives and agents expect a deluge of free agent signings and big-name trades. No one is certain whether the winter meetings, which begin at the Gaylord Opryland Resort in Nashville, Tennessee, on Monday, will brim with action or simply serve as a prelude for the madness ahead, but regardless: Buckle up. It’s coming.

Three transactions will set the tone for the winter. The Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes could soon reach its conclusion with an astronomical and record-breaking guarantee. The San Diego Padres are expected to trade star outfielder Juan Soto in a deal some say will come together by the end of the meetings. And Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who executives say they believe will sign in mid-December, will trigger a bidding frenzy among the game’s most-moneyed teams.

As these moves happen, the rest of the market will sort itself out. Until then, here is the latest on the names you’ll be hearing next week — and those likely to move in their wake — as the baseball world gathers in Music City.

Shohei Ohtani

The Ohtani extravaganza is barreling toward the finish line, and when he finally agrees to a deal, the number, sources said, will surge well beyond $500 million. One source said he believes Ohtani will receive a contract for at least $550 million. Another said the bidding could reach $600 million. Regardless of where it lands, it will shatter the record for the largest guarantee in North American sports history: the $426.5 million the Los Angeles Angels gave to Ohtani’s teammate, Mike Trout.

Fears that the reconstructive elbow surgery that will prevent Ohtani from pitching in 2024 — and has led to understandable questions about his future on the mound — would put a damper on his free agent value have clearly proved unfounded. A player of Ohtani’s caliber — a two-time American League MVP whose unique brilliance at the plate and on the mound and international stardom makes him an all-time free agent — transcends the sort of uncertainty that would waylay anyone else’s free agency.

Given that, it would be foolish to count out any high-revenue team, though by now the field for Ohtani’s services has winnowed, sources said. The Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and New York Mets, who were among the initial group of suitors, have turned their attention to other players, sources said. Among those confirmed by sources to be still in the bidding: the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays and Angels. The San Francisco Giants have long had a fondness for Ohtani, though where they stand in these sweepstakes is unknown.

When Ohtani does make his choice, the signing is expected to jump-start a stagnant position-player market in which the largest free agent contract has been outfielder Jason Heyward‘s one-year, $9 million deal with the Dodgers. While the hitting class is weak, the markets for center fielder Cody Bellinger, third baseman Matt Chapman, outfielders Jung Hoo Lee, Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and slugger Jorge Soler figure to pick up following Ohtani’s signing — as will the trade of the best bat available.

Juan Soto

What looked inevitable across the industry a month ago — the payroll-cutting Padres would be forced to trade Soto, who will make more than $30 million in arbitration before hitting free agency after the 2024 season — is edging closer to becoming a reality for the franchise. San Diego, sources said, is engaging teams in trade talks for the 25-year-old, whom they acquired at the 2022 trade deadline.

The potential complications are manifold. Soto’s salary, even for one year, is a nonstarter for a number of teams. Others are loath to deal significant talent for a player who could leave after the season. And it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Padres could extend Soto, though sources said it’s a long shot.

If they make a deal, San Diego won’t recoup anything close to the haul of players it gave the Washington Nationals for Soto — the sort of psychological barrier that has derailed plenty of potential deals in the past. If any general manager is known for the kind of creative deal-making that could make it possible, though, it’s A.J. Preller. The most obvious destination is the New York Yankees, who are seeking bats to spark an offense that ranked 25^th in runs scored in MLB this season. The Yankees have the major league-ready pitching the Padres desire and a farm system deep enough to whet San Diego’s appetite for a deal. The Giants, who have sought a foundational star for more than a year, have roadblocks as an in-division team but enough motivation to overcome them. The Cubs check three important boxes: need, talent and money. Other possibilities include the Philadelphia Phillies, who don’t necessarily have the need but certainly the talent and money. The Red Sox and Mets both are in enough of a prospect-hoarding phase to hesitate pushing in for a player not signed beyond 2024. They’re also two pitching weak major league teams and farm systems. But if the will is there, the inclusion of a third team in a potential deal could remedy the pitching issue. While it would be unlike the Baltimore Orioles to consider such a deal, the best farm system in baseball, though hitting-heavy, has the talent to do it.

One team with a need for Soto and the talent to make it happen that might abstain from the bidding: the Seattle Mariners, who also were expected to be an Ohtani suitor but blanched at the money. If the Mariners were to move one of their young starters, it almost certainly would be for a cost-controlled bat with multiple years of team control.

Should the Padres deal Soto and get significant pitching help back, it could free them, sources said, to pursue Jung Hoo Lee — a Korean outfielder ranked No. 14 on Kiley McDaniel’s free agent rankings who is best friends with Ha-Seong Kim, San Diego’s Gold Glove-winning infielder — and Yuki Matsui, a left-handed closer from Japan, who could replace free agent Josh Hader at the back of the Padres’ bullpen.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

It’s difficult to remember a player with a market as robust as Yamamoto’s. The 25-year-old right-hander will decide among a who’s who of teams interested in him: The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox and Cubs are among the favorites, with the Giants, Blue Jays and Phillies also expected to be in the mix.

The price for Yamamoto, officials who plan on pursuing the pitcher told ESPN, seems to be growing by the day. Multiple executives said the floor will be $200 million. Others said the cost of his contract could be in excess of $250 million — which would mean another $39.38 million as a posting fee paid to the Orix Buffaloes, with whom Yamamoto has won three consecutive league MVP and Sawamura Awards.

Yamamoto’s allure is undeniable, and with so many big-revenue teams interested in adding him to their rotation, it’s more than conceivable that he receives the second-largest contract handed to a pitcher, behind Gerrit Cole’s $324 million deal with the Yankees. Yamamoto plans to meet with teams after the winter meeting before making his decision.

Dylan Cease

Cease’s popularity on the trade market is due as much to his contract status as his pitch quality. In a sea of trade-block pitchers who will hit free agency after 2024, Cease comes with two years before he hits the market.

The controllability — and cost control, with an estimated $9 million arbitration salary for the upcoming season and somewhere in the $14 million to 16 million range the next year — gives the White Sox, under new general manager Chris Getz, the ability to ask for a package built around a top prospect. Teams looking for frontline starting pitching include the Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, Atlanta Braves, Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks and Cincinnati Reds — and each can put together a package strong enough to entice the White Sox, whose last rebuild included the deal that landed them Cease, at the time in Low A.

He blossomed into a top starter and looked downright unhittable in 2022, when he finished second in AL Cy Young voting on the strength of a 2.20 ERA and 227 strikeouts in 184 innings. While Cease’s ERA more than doubled to 4.58 last season, he remained one of the game’s best strikeout artists. Only Cole, Corbin Burnes and Kevin Gausman have more punchouts over the past three seasons than Cease’s 667.

Chicago’s glaring lack of depth in the major leagues and minor leagues makes a deal for Cease a near certainty. Wherever he lands, expect a hefty package to go back to the White Sox.

Tyler Glasnow

The market for Glasnow has heated up, and rival executives expect Tampa Bay to move him sooner than later. The Rays’ calculus is clear: Though they have the ability to push their payroll into the $130 million range, it seems imprudent to do so in a year where ace Shane McClanahan and starters Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen all are recovering from reconstructive elbow surgeries — plus with the uncertainty surrounding shortstop Wander Franco, whom MLB is investigating after allegations of inappropriate relationships with underage girls in his native Dominican Republic.

Dealing Glasnow is the easiest way to shed a significant salary. He’s set to make $25 million this season before reaching free agency in the winter. While that number will scare off some teams, new suitors continue to reach out to the Rays as the pitching market takes shape.

Further, the Rays will be busy beyond Glasnow. Their standard operating procedure is to listen to offers on everyone, and a farm system that churns out major league players on the regular affords them the flexibility to do so. Tampa Bay isn’t necessarily looking to trade outfielder Randy Arozarena; a small number of teams have inquired, though that could grow in the coming weeks. With Arozarena set to make around $9 million this year, plus two arbitration raises beyond that, the Rays could move the 28-year-old for a significant windfall. Others potentially on the block include, but are not limited to, third baseman Isaac Paredes, second baseman Brandon Lowe, first baseman Harold Ramirez and outfielder Manuel Margot.

Emmanuel Clase

The Cleveland Guardians are open to dealing Clase, their All-Star closer who has led the AL in saves for two consecutive years, sources told ESPN. With Hader seeking a deal in the neighborhood of Edwin Diaz‘s (five years, $102 million) and the next-best closing option Jordan Hicks (with 32 career saves), Clase has broad appeal to any team looking for a bullpen upgrade.

Clase’s contract makes him even more attractive. He’s owed $2.5 million in 2024, $4.5 million in 2025, $6 million in 2026 and has $10 million club options for 2027 and 2028. Every team in baseball can afford Clase at those prices.

How much talent they’re willing to pony up will determine whether he’s moved. Clase blew a major league-high 12 saves last season en route to posting a career-worst 3.22 ERA. His strikeout rate dipped from 28.4% of batters to 21.2% — below the league average of 22.7% — and his groundball rate dropped, too.

Still, Clase’s 99-mph cutter is regarded as one of the best pitches in baseball, and his 91 mph slider isn’t far behind. He walks fewer than two batters per nine innings, and his 0.42 homers per nine allowed since his 2019 debut is the best in baseball. Cleveland acquired Scott Barlow, Kansas City‘s closer for the past four seasons, in a trade with San Diego, so if the Guardians do what they do so well — move controllable pitching for a multiplayer return — they’ve got a ready-made replacement.

Plenty more pitching

Left-hander Jordan Montgomery might not have to wait for Yamamoto to choose a team or the trade market to get moving. Coming off a bravura performance for the World Series-winning Texas Rangers, he finds himself in a sweet spot: His performance certainly warrants a nine-figure deal, but not one so rich that he needs to draft off Yamamoto (which teams believe National League Cy Young winner Blake Snell will do). The Rangers want to re-sign him. He could be a strike-first option for Boston if it’s feeling squishy about Yamamoto. Same to the Cubs, particularly if the top end of the market doesn’t pan out. Something in the Patrick Corbin range, at six years and $140 million, feels like a reasonable landing spot, executives said.

There’s enough pitching still available that teams whiffing on Yamamoto and Montgomery won’t be left entirely barren. In addition to Clase, the Guardians are entertaining the possibility of trading right-hander Shane Bieber, who won the 2020 AL Cy Young but leaves some teams slightly wary after spending 2½ months between July and September on the injured list with elbow inflammation. (In his final start Sept. 27, Bieber held the Reds to one run in six innings while striking out seven and walking none.)

The Milwaukee Brewers have engaged teams in recent days on right-hander Corbin Burnes, according to sources. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner finished eighth in the voting this season on the strength of 200 strikeouts and 66 walks in 193⅔ innings with a 3.39 ERA. Like Bieber, Burnes is set to hit free agency after the 2024 season.

Two other left-handers worth monitoring: Eduardo Rodriguez and Shota Imanaga. Rodriguez, 30, signed a mid-November free agent deal two years ago but opted out of the final three years and $49 million of that contract with the Detroit Tigers. Now he could join Aaron Nola (seven years, $172 million with Philadelphia) and Sonny Gray (three years, $75 million with St. Louis Cardinals) as big-money pitchers to go early. Imanaga, also 30, left Nippon Professional Baseball’s Yokohama Bay Stars this winter after posting a 2.96 ERA over 1,129⅔ innings during his eight-year stint. While teams hoped they could get Imanaga on a Kodai Senga-like deal — five years, $75 million — his market has grown strong enough, sources said, that his deal could be closer to $100 million.

The market for the other two top starters — right-handers Lucas Giolito and Marcus Stroman — should pick up soon, both as a function of the higher-priced signings and the run on mid-tier starters (Nick Martinez, Kenta Maeda, Reynaldo Lopez, Luis Severino, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn) shrinking the supply of pitching. Also still available: right-handers Yariel Rodriguez, Jack Flaherty, Seth Lugo, Mike Clevinger, Michael Lorenzen, Frankie Montas, Michael Wacha, Tyler Mahle and Erick Fedde and left-handers Hyun-Jin Ryu, James Paxton and Wade Miley.

The wild card? Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw, who underwent shoulder surgery in early November but said in an Instagram post: “I am hopeful to return to play at some point next summer.” The market for Kershaw is expected to be small: the Dodgers, with whom he has spent the entirety of his 16-year career, or the Rangers, whose stadium is less than half an hour from where Kershaw grew up.