Dak Prescott has led Dallas to five straight dominant wins, but the Cowboys are underdogs at Buffalo,
Want to know the latest trends, matchups and injury news in football? We’ve got you. Want to know where the public has money this week? We’ve got you. Want to know which teams to play, whom to roster in DFS or whom to pick in your Eliminator pool? We’ve got you there, too. Here’s everything you need to know as you prepare for your fantasy football matchups and potential bets on the games this weekend.
Odds by ESPN BET.
David Purdum’s Action Report
- Bettors should pay attention to the weather forecast for Saturday’s Avocados From Mexico Cure Bowl between the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks and Appalachian State Mountaineers in Orlando. As of Thursday, the forecast was calling for a 100% chance of rain with 16 mph winds. The total opened as high as 48.5 but was down to 43 on Thursday. The point spread on the game also has been on the move, with Appalachian State going from a 3.5-point favorite to 6.5-point favorite.
- The line on Saturday’s LA Bowl between the Boise State Broncos and favored UCLA Bruins has ticked up toward the Bruins, despite key players skipping the game. UCLA opened as a 2.5-point favorite at Caesars Sportsbook. The line was up to -4.5 as of Thursday. Highly-touted freshman quarterback Dante Moore has reportedly entered the transfer portal, and Bruins defensive lineman Laiatu Latu, the Pac-12 defensive player of the year, will miss the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft. Boise State will be breaking in a new quarterback, after starter Taylen Green announced that he would transferring to Arkansas. Freshman quarterback CJ Tiller is expected to start for the Broncos.
- The early action on the Rose Bowl between the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide and No. 1 Michigan Wolverines continues to be lopsided in favorite of the underdog Tide. Alabama remained a consensus 1.5-point underdog to the Wolverines this week. On Thursday, DraftKings was reporting that 84% of the money that had been wagered on the point spread was on the Crimson Tide.
Seth Walder’s biggest edges from ESPN Analytics
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+2.5) vs. Old Dominion Monarchs: Old Dominion QB Austin Reed has posted a solid 62 QBR this season (which, coincidentally, also ranks 62nd). And it is on offense where the Hilltoppers have the major edge; they rank 76th in offensive FPI to Old Dominion at 120. FPI makes Western Kentucky 3.5-point favorites in the Famous Toastery Bowl.
Joe Fortenbaugh’s Confidence picks
- Georgia Southern Eagles -3.5 over Ohio Bobcats: The Ohio roster was annihilated by the transfer portal. Starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke is leaving and his backup was already out of action. Additionally, the Bobcats lost their top wide receiver, top two running backs and top linebacker to the portal as well. Happy to lay the 3.5 in this spot at the Myrtle Beach Bowl.
- New Mexico State Aggies -3.5 over Fresno State Bulldogs: Two teams headed in very different directions. Jerry Kill’s Aggies won eight of their final nine games en route to a 10-4 record. Meanwhile, Fresno State dropped each of its final three games to close out the season heading into the Isleta New Mexico Bowl and will be without head coach Jeff Tedford, who is stepping away from the program due to health concerns. The Bulldogs lack motivation, which is one of the primary handicapping factors to consider this time of year.
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks -2.5 over Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns: When discussing the motivation angle, good luck finding a bowl team with more motivation than Jacksonville State, which went 8-4 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in its first season at the FBS level. But because of some goofy rule, the Gamecocks weren’t sure they would even be allowed to play in a bowl game this season. I’ll spare you the details and leave you with this: Jacksonville State got in and they’re extremely excited to be playing in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl.
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